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Model of Fonarow et al for Predicting Mortality in a Hospitalized Patient with Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure (ADHERE Model)

Purpose: To predict the risk of in-hospital mortality for a patient with acutely decompensated heart failure using the multiple logistic regression model of Fonarow et al.

Description

Fonarow et al evaluated patients in the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) for factors associated with in-hospital mortality using multivariate logistic regression. This can help identify patients who require more aggressive management and monitoring. The authors are from multiple university hospitals in the United States.


Parameters:

(1) blood urea nitrogen (BUN)

(2) admission systolic blood pressure in mm Hg

(3) heart rate in beats per minute

(4) age in years

 

X =

= (0.0212 * (BUN in mg/dL)) - (0.0192 * (admission systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0131 * (heart rate)) + (0.0288 * (age in years)) - 4.72

 

probability of in-hospital mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10