Patient selection: Egyptian with chronic liver disease
Outcome: hepatic fibrosis
Parameters:
(1) CA 19-9 in U/mL
(2) age in years
(3) alpha-2 macroglobulin in g/L
(4) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L
(5) platelet count in 10^3/µL
(6) serum albumin in g/L
Egy score =
= (0.0063 * (CA 19-9)) + (0.0203 * (age)) + (0.4485 * (alpha-2 macroglobulin)) + (0.0303 * (bilirubin)) - (0.0048 * (platelet count)) - (0.0462 * (albumin)) + 3.52
An Egy score > 2.91850 was 76% sensitive and 68% specific for significant hepatic fibrosis (F2, F3 or F4), with a negative predictive value of 100%. The positive predictive value was 80%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78.
An Egy score > 3.28624 was 92% sensitive and 78% specific for severe hepatic fibrosis (F3 or F4), with a negative predictive value of 97%. The positive predictive value was 56%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.88.
An Egy score > 3.67570 was 82% sensitive and 87% specific for cirrhosis (F4) with a negative predictive value of 97%. The positive predictive value was 43%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.87.
Limitations:
• All of the assays need to be performed accurately and precisely in order to get reliable calculations.
