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Model for Identifying Patient at Risk of Mortality at Presentation to ED

Purpose: To identify a patient in the Emergency Department who is at increased risk of hospital mortality using the model of Hucker et al.

Description

Hucker et al developed a model for identifying patients coming to the Emergency Department (ED) who are at greater risk for hospital mortality. These patients may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Worthing Hospital and the University of Brighton in West Sussex, England.


Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) heart rate in beats per minute

(3) serum phosphate in mmol/L

(4) serum albumin in g/L (text says g/dL but data in tables is in g/L)

 

X =

= (0.05 * (age in years)) + (0.02 * (heart rate)) + (1.97 * (serum phosphate)) - (0.12 * (serum albumin)) - 4.80

 

probability of mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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Objective

ICD-10