Nguyen and Graviss reported a prognostic model for patients with tuberculosis. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Houston Methodist Research Institute in Houston.
Patient selection: tuberculosis patient in the United States, age >= 15 years
Parameters:
(1) years of age
(2) country of birth
(3) residence
(4) chronic kidney failure
(5) meningeal tuberculosis
(6) miliary tuberculosis
(7) tuberculosis on chest X-ray
(8) HIV status
Parameters
Findings
Points
age in years
15 to 44 years
0
45 to 64 years
6
>= 65 years
12
country of birth
US
2
non-US
0
residence
homeless
2
long-term care facility
4
other
0
chronic kidney disease
no
0
yes
8
TB meningitis
no
0
yes
10
miliary TB
no
0
yes
4
TB chest X-ray
no
0
yes
6
HIV
negative
0
positive
6
unknown
6
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 52
Total Score
Risk Group
Mortality During Treatment
0 to 14
low
3-4%
15 to 18
medium
13%
>= 19
high
26%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
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