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Description

Lipsett et al reported a risk score for predicting radiographic pneumonia in a pediatric patient. The authors are from Boston Children's Hospital.


Patient selection: 3 months to 18 years of age

 

Outcome: radiographic pneumonia

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) triage oxygen saturation in percent, enter from 0 to 100

(3) fever at home or in the ED

(4) rales on examination

(5) wheeze on examination

 

Parameter

Finding

Beta-Coefficient

age in years

 

0.098 * (age)

triage oxygen saturation

 

-0.216 * (saturation)

fever

no

0

 

yes

1.144

rales

no

0

 

yes

0.407

wheeze

no

0

 

yes

-0.907

 

where:

• The triage oxygen saturation is balanced by the relatively large constant.

 

value of X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 18.056

 

probability of radiographic pneumonia =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.71.


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