Lipsett et al reported a risk score for predicting radiographic pneumonia in a pediatric patient. The authors are from Boston Children's Hospital.
Patient selection: 3 months to 18 years of age
Outcome: radiographic pneumonia
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) triage oxygen saturation in percent, enter from 0 to 100
(3) fever at home or in the ED
(4) rales on examination
(5) wheeze on examination
Parameter
Finding
Beta-Coefficient
age in years
0.098 * (age)
triage oxygen saturation
-0.216 * (saturation)
fever
no
0
yes
1.144
rales
0.407
wheeze
-0.907
where:
• The triage oxygen saturation is balanced by the relatively large constant.
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 18.056
probability of radiographic pneumonia =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.71.
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Specialty: Infectious Diseases