Jiang et al reported 2 nomograms for predicting prognosis for a patient with acute pancreatitis. One nomogram predicts 1-yearoutcomes. The authors are from Tianjin Medical University in China.
Patient selection: acute pancreatitis
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) WBC count in 10^9/L
(3) serum creatinine mg/dL
(4) RDW in percent
points for WBC =
= (2 * (WBC))
points for creatinine =
= (4.6778 * (creatinine))
Parameter
Finding
Points
age
<= 70 years
0
> 70 years
28.0
RDW
<= 13.8
> 13.8
24.4
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 236.56
value of X =
= (-0.0001641 * ((score)^2)) - (0.01536 * (score)) + 3.246
probability of 1-year survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
probability of 1-year mortality =
= 1 - (survival)
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Specialty: Gastroenterology
