Yu et al reported 2 nomograms for predicting the risk of nosocomial infection following cardiac surgery for congenital heart disease. One of these uses serum AST. The authors are from Shanghai Children's Medical Center.
Patient selection: infant undergoing cardiac surgery for congenital heart disease
Parameters:
(1) STS (Society of Thoracic Surgeons) risk grade
(2) percentile for body mass index
(3) cardiopulmonary bypass time in minutes, from 0 to 500
(4) serum AST
(5) percent lymphocytes
points for cardiopulmonary bypass time =
= 0.25 * (time)
Parameter
Finding
Points
STS risk grade
1
0
2
4.9
3
9.8
4
14.6
5
19.5
percentile for BMI
< 5th percentile
13.3
5th to 95th percentile
3.7
> 95th percentile
0
percent lymphocytes
low (below LLN)
17.3
normal
1.6
high (above ULN)
0
serum AST
normal or low
0
high
7
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 157.1
value of X =
= (0.06907 * (score)) - 5.19
probability of nosocomial infection =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81.
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