Feng et al reported a nomogram for predicting the carotid blowout syndrome in a patient with head and neck cancer. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Medical University in Guangzhou, China.
Patient selection: head and neck cancer
Patient evaluation: computed tomography angiography
Parameters:
(1) radical neck dissection (RND)
(2) carotid artery surrounded by tumor (SBT)
(3) carotid artery invaded by tumor (IBT)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
RND
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
80
|
|
SBT
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
100
|
|
IBT
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
55
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 235
• The higher the score the greater the risk of carotid blowout.
• There are only 8 possible combinations of the parameters.
value of X =
= (0.0294183 * (score)) - 2.1892
probability of carotid blowout syndrome =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.84.
