Jiang et al reported a model for predicting transmural bowel infarction in a patient with an acute thrombosis of the superior mesenteric vein. This can help to identify a patient who requires more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in China.
Patient selection: acute thrombosis of the superior mesenteric artery
Parameter:
(1) history of deep vein thrombosis (DVT)
(2) rebound tenderness of the abdomen
(3) decreased bowel wall enhancement on CT angiography
(4) serum lactate concentration in mmol/L
Parameter
Finding
Points
history DVT
no
0
yes
90.2
rebound tenderness
no
0
yes
100
decreased wall enhancement
no
0
ye
94.2
serum lactate
<= 2 mmol/L
0
> 2 mmol/L
59
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 343.4
value of X =
= (0.01962 * (score)) - 2.606
probability of transmural bowel infarction =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86 in the training set and 0.85 in the validation set.
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