Chang et al reported a model for predicting hospital-acquired infections. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from closer monitoring. The authors are from multiple institutions in Taiwan.
Patient selection: hospital in-patient
Parameters:
(1) nasogastric tube
(2) Foley catheter
(3) arterial line
(4) central venous catheter
(5) corticosteroid therapy
(6) stress ulcer prophylaxis
(7) hemodialysis
Parameter
Finding
Points
nasogastric tube
no
0
yes
2.5499
Foley catheter
no
0
yes
1.8124
arterial line
no
0
yes
0.9502
central venous catheter
no
0
yes
0.7528
corticosteroid therapy
no
0
yes
1.9751
stress ulcer prophylaxis
no
0
yes
1.3682
hemodialysis
no
0
yes
1.5272
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 4.4622
probability of hospital-acquired infection =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87 during external validation.
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