de Punder et al developed 2 models for predicting joint damage progression in a patient with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Radboud Univeristy in Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
Patient selection: rheumatoid arthritis >= 18 years old not on DMARD
Outcome: progression of joint damage based on the Ratingen score
Parameters:
(1) subscore for risk factors
(1a) anti-CCP
(1b) erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR)
(1c) number of erosions
(2) age in years
(3) gender
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
anti-CCP |
<= 25 U/mL |
0 |
|
|
> 25 U/mL |
1 |
|
ESR |
<= 25 mm/h |
0 |
|
|
> 25 mm/h |
1 |
|
number of erosions |
0 |
0 |
|
|
1 or more |
1 |
subscore =
= SUM(points for all 3 risk factors)
|
Parameter |
Finding |
beta coefficient |
|
subscore |
0 |
0 |
|
|
1 |
1.36 |
|
|
2 |
2.93 |
|
|
3 |
3.61 |
|
age in years |
< 45 years of age |
0 |
|
|
45 to 64 years |
-0.23 |
|
|
> 64 years |
-0.77 |
|
gender |
male |
0 |
|
|
female |
-0.40 |
X =
= SUM(beta coefficients) – 1.53
probability of joint damage progression =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1)*X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.75.
Specialty: Immunology/Rheumatology
ICD-10: ,
