Santos and Rosario developed a model for predicting if a young woman is likely to have her first pregnancy as an adolescent (defined as age < 20 years). The authors are from S. Teotinio’s Hospital Empress Publica Empresarial and Barreiro Health Care Center in Portugal.
Patient selection: female age < 20 (“adolescent”)
Outcome: first-time adolescent pregnancy
Parameters:
(1) family structure
(2) maternal history
(3) socioeconomic status
Parameter
Finding
Points
family structure
nuclear or extended
0
other
3
maternal history
first pregnancy as adolescent (age < 20 years)
1
first pregnancy as an adult
socioeconomic status
high
0
low
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 5
• A score >= 2 was associated with a first-time adolescent pregnancy.
Performance:
• The sensitivity was 76% and specificity 75%, with 75% of women correctly classified.
An alternative method is to use a logistic regression formula:
X =
= (1.865 if other type of family) + (0.711 if lower socioeconomic status) + (0.605 if mother had first child as an adolescent) – 1.974
probability of having a first-time adolescent pregnancy =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) *X))
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