Description

Fuchs et al developed a simple score for predicting the chances of an early preterm birth in a woman with a singleton pregnancy. This can help the physician and woman to decide about the need for emergency cerclage. The authors are from multiple hospitals in France.


 

Patient selection: woman with a singleton pregnancy

 

Parameters:

(1) obstetric history

(2) cervical dilation in cm

(3) status of membranes

(4) evidence of infection (WBC count >= 13,600 per µL or CRP > 15 mg/L)

Parameter

Finding

Points

obstetric history

primigravida

4

 

multigravida, no history of second trimester pregnancy loss

0

 

multigravida, history of second trimester pregnancy loss

5

cervical dilatation in cm

1 cm

0

 

2 cm

1

 

3 cm

2

 

>= 4 cm

4

membranes

visible at external os

0

 

bulging through os into vagina

4

evidence of infection

none

0

 

present

2

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 15

• The higher the score the greater the chances of early preterm birth.

 

probability of early preterm birth =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * ((0.382 * (score)) – 2.363)))

 


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