Bouvy et al developed a score for predicting mortality for patients with heart failure. The authors are from Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences in The Netherlands.
Patient selection: adult with heart failure followed for at least 18 months
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) history of diabetes mellitus
(4) history of renal insufficiency
(5) ankle edema
(6) body weight in kilograms
(7) systolic or diastolic blood pressure
(8) beta-blocker therapy
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.06 * (age in years)
body weight
-0.4 * (weight in kilograms)
gender
male
+4
female
0
history of diabetes
absent
0
present
+9
renal insufficiency
absent
0
present
+17
ankle edema
absent
0
present
+10
blood pressure
systolic < 110 mm Hg OR diastolic < 70 mm Hg
+7
systolic >= 110 AND diastolic >= 70 mm Hg
0
beta blocker therapy
yes
0
no
+13
score =
= SUM(points for all 8 parameters)
Interpretation:
• The lowest rate of mortality is seen with scores from -5 to -1.01.
Points
Mortality Rate
< -15
12%
-15 to -5.01
10%
-5 to -1.01
8%
-1 to 6.99
46%
7 to 10.99
52%
>= 11
78%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.80.
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