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Risk Scores of Mocroft at al for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in a Patient with HIV in the D:A:D Study: Short Model with Unknown Cardiovascular Risk

Description

Mocroft et al developed risk scores for predicting chronic kidney disease in HIV patients enrolled in the D:A:D Study. A short model can be used when cardiovascular risk factors are unknown. The authors are from multiple institutions in Europe, the United States and Australia.


 

Patient selection: HIV positie, estimated GFR > 60 mL per min per 1.73 square meters

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) gender

(3) intravenous drug user (and HIV exposure)

(4) hepatitis C coinfection

(5) baseline estimated GFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meter

(6) nadir absolute CD4 count per µL

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

<= 35 years

0

 

36 to 50 years

1.1114

 

51 to 60 years

2.1166

 

> 60 years

2.9537

gender

male

0

 

female

0.3701

intravenous drug user

no

0

 

yes

0.6481

hepatitis C coinfection

no

0

 

yes

0.3288

baseline eGFR

> 90

-1.6242

 

71 to 90

0

 

61 to 70

1.6254

nadir absolute CD4 count

<= 200 per microliter

0

 

> 200 per µL

-0.2931

 

X =

= SUM(points for all 6 parameters) – 6.2059

 

probability of CKD =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 


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