Risk Score of Wang et al for Predicting Stroke in a Patient with New Onset Atrial Fibrillation in 5 Years Based on the Framingham Heart Study Data

Description

Wang et al developed a score for predicting the risk of stroke within 5 years for a patient with new-onset atrial fibrillation. This can help identify those patients who may benefit from interventions. The authors are from the Framingham Heart Study and most are from Boston.

NOTES:

The concurrent point score for predicting risk of stroke or death is in 07.34.01.

Parameters:

(1) age

(2) gender

(3) systolic blood pressure (based on the mean of 2 physician measurements)

(4) diabetes mellitus (fasting glucose >= 140 mg/dL; a random glucose >= 200 mg/dL; use of insulin or a hypoglycemic agent)

(5) prior history of stroke or TIA (transient ischemic attack)

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	55 - 59 years	0
	60 - 62 years	1
	63 - 66 years	2
	67 - 71 years	3
	72 - 74 years	4
	75 - 77 years	5
	78 - 81 years	6
	82 - 85 years	7
	86 - 90 years	8
	91 - 93 years	9
	>= 94 years	10
gender	male	0
	female	6
systolic blood pressure	< 120 mm Hg	0
	120 - 139 mm Hg	1
	140 - 159 mm Hg	2
	160 - 179 mm Hg	3
	>= 180 mm Hg	4
diabetes mellitus	no	0
	yes	5
previous history of stroke or TIA	no	0
	yes	6

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 31

• The higher the score the greater the risk of stroke within 5 years.

Total Score	5 Year Risk of Stroke
0 or 1	5%
2 or 3	6%
4	7%
5	8%
6 or 7	9%
8	11%
9	12%
10	13%
11	14%
12	16%
13	18%
14	19%
15	21%
16	24%
17	26%
18	28%
19	31%
20	34%
21	37%
22	41%
23	44%
24	48%
25	51%
26	55%
27	59%
28	63%
29	67%
30	71%
31	75%

If this data is entered into JMP, the following second order equation is derived:

risk of stroke in 5 years as a percent (from 0 to 100) =

= (0.074957 * ((points)^2)) - (0.07815 * (points)) + 6.019749

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Description

Specialty

ICD-10