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Risk Score of McMahan et al for Predicting Atherosclerotic Lesions in the Aorta of a Young Person

Purpose: To evaluate a person 15-34 years old for the risk of atherosclerotic lesions in the aorta based on the study of McMahan et al.

Description

McMahan et al developed a score for predicting the risk of atherosclerotic lesions in the aorta of a young patient. These can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple universities in the United States belonging to the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth Research Group.


Patient selection: ages 15 to 34

 

Parameters:

(1) age

(2) gender

(3) non-HDL cholesterol

(4) smoking status

(5) blood pressure

(6) percent glycohemoglobin as indicator of persistent hyperglycemia

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age

15 - 19

0

 

20 - 24

5

 

25 - 29

10

 

30 - 34

15

gender

male

0

 

female

1

non-HDL cholesterol

< 130 mg/dL

0

 

130 - 159 mg/dL

1

 

160 - 189 mg/dL

2

 

190 - 219 mg/dL

3

 

>= 220 mg/dL

4

smoking

nonsmoker

0

 

smoker

4

blood pressure

normotensive

0

 

hypertensive

3

percent glycohemoglobin

< 8%

0

 

>= 8%

3

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 30

• The higher the score the greater the risk of atherosclerotic lesions in the aorta.

 

The curve in Figure 1 correlates the score and the probability of atherosclerotic lesions. If the curve is analyzed in JMP the following equations are derived:

 

risk for scores from 0 to 13 =

= (0.02689 * ((score)^2)) - (0.022553 * (score)) + 0.06556

 

risk for scores from 13 to 23 =

= (0.24825 * ((score)^2)) - (5.9334 * (score)) + 40.04923

 

risk for scores from 23 to 30 =

= (-0.072024 * ((score)^2)) + (9.71369 * (score)) - 150.4435


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10