Description

Ambler et al developed a score for predicting in-hospital mortality risk for a patient undergoing mitral and/or aortic valve surgery. The authors are from multiple institutions participating in the Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland database.


 

Patient selection: mitral and/or aortic valve surgery

 

Outcome: in-hospital mortality following surgery

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) gender

(3) body mass index

(4) mitral and/or aortic valve

(5) tricuspid valve surgery

(6) coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery

(7) renal failure

(8) cardiac arrhythmia

(9) hypertension

(10) diabetes mellitus

(11) left ventricular ejection fraction in percent

(12) superior priority

(13) number of previous cardiac operations

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

< 50 years of age

0

 

50 to 59 years of age

1

 

60 to 69 years of age

2

 

70 to 79 years of age

4

 

>= 80 years

5

gender

male

0

 

female

1

body mass index

>= 20 kg per square meter

0

 

< 20 per square meter

2

mitral and/or aortic valve surgery

aortic valve

0

 

mitral valve

1

 

mitral and aortic valve

2

concomitant tricuspid valve surgery

no

0

 

yes

1

concomitant CABG

no

0

 

yes

1

renal function

serum creatinine <= 200 µmol/L

0

 

serum creatinine > 200 µmol/L

3

 

renal dialysis

6

cardiac arrhythmia

none

0

 

atrial fibrillation and/or heart block

1

 

ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation

2

hypertension

no

0

 

yes

1

diabetes

no

0

 

yes

1

LVEF

> 50%

0

 

30 to 50%

1

 

< 30%

4

surgical priority

elective

0

 

urgent

2

 

emergency

7

previous cardiac operations

none

0

 

1

3

 

2 or more

4

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 13 parameters)

 

X =

= (-1.75 * EXP(1.45 - (0.0716 * (score)))) + 1.36

 

probability =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 


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