Risk of Accidents When Driving Drunk

 

NOTES:

(1) The risk of causing an accident are increased if the person has used drugs that interfere with performance or if the person is tired.

(2) The data in the equations is given over a limited range of blood alcohol levels. How accurate the estimates are when the blood alcohol is > 0.18 is unclear.

(3) The equations were derived using JMP.

 

Blood Alcohol Level in g/dL (percent)	Relative Risk of Causing an Accident
<= 0.04	1
0.06	2.2
0.08	3.8
0.10	6.9
0.12	12.4
0.14	20
0.16	35

from Figure 1, page 523

 

relative risk of causing an accident =

= (0.02639 * ((100 * (alcohol level))^3)) - (0.483 * ((100 * (alcohol level))^2)) + (3.6147 * (100 * (alcohol level))) – 7.56

 

Blood Alcohol Level in g/dL (percent)	Relative Risk of Causing a Fatal Accident
0.03	2
0.05	2.5
0.07	3.4
0.09	5.6
0.11	9.3
0.13	15
0.15	25
0.17	43

from Figure 2, page 523

 

relative risk of causing a fatal accident =

= (0.02595 * ((100 * (alcohol level))^3)) - (0.4617 * ((100 * (alcohol level))^2)) + (3.0986 * (100 * (alcohol level))) – 4.1764

 

where:

• Figure 2 implies that a blood alcohol < 0.01 g/dL has almost a 1.8 relative risk for causing a fatal accident. This may be either (a) an artifact of the figure, or (b) indicating that any ethanol at all is associated with a greater relative risk of a fatal accident, or (c) the relative risks given are too high.

• The parameters for the 2 equations are fairly close.