Description

Ellis et al developed a new risk model to describe outcome after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). This model uses lesion characteristics seen on angiography during the procedure. The authors are from the Cleveland Clinic.


Moderately strong correlates (as defined in Table 1, page 1972):

(1) length in mm

(2) lumen irregularity (irregularly shaped or sawtooth lumen edges)

(3) filling defect (any angiographic lucency with contrast surrounding at least 3 sides)

(4) calcification >= Grade 2 and angulated >= 45°

(5) eccentric

(6) severity of calcification in target vessel

(7) age of saphenous vein graft (SVG)

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

length

< 10 mm

0

 

>= 10 mm

1

lumen irregularity

absent

0

 

present

1

filling defect

small to moderate

0

 

large

1

calcified and angulated >= 45°

absent

0

 

present

1

eccentric lesion

absent

0

 

present

1

calcification

none, mild, moderate

0

 

severe

1

age of saphenous vein graft

< 10 years

0

 

>= 10 years

1

 

points for moderately strong correlates =

= SUM(points for all 7 parameters)

 

Strongest correlates:

(1) chronicity of total occlusion (total occlusion is TIMI grade ) or 1; chronic occlusion is indicated by either a known duration >= 3 months or bridging collaterals)

(2) status of saphenous vein graft (degenerated if more than 50% of length shows luminal irregularities, filling defect, gross irregularity or staining)

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

total occlusion

chronic

0

 

non-chronic

1

status of saphenous vein graft

non-degnerated

0

 

degenerated

1

 

points for strongest correlates =

= SUM(points for both parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum number of moderately strong and strongest correlates: 0

• maximum number of moderately strong correlates: 7

• maximum number of strongest correlates: 2

 

Strongest Correlates

Moderately Strong Correlates

Risk Group

Risk Class

1 or 2

NA

highest

IV

0

3 - 7

high

III

0

1 or 2

moderate

II

0

0

low

I

 

 

Risk Group

Complications

highest

2.1%

high

3.4%

moderate

8.2%

low

12.7%

 

where:

• Complications = death, emergency CABG, large AMI (elevation CK >= 3 times normal)


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