Wienbeck et al developed a prognostic index (PI) for patients with Crohn's disease using Cox's model. It is intended to predict patient outcome better than the activity indices do. The study used data from the European Cooperative Crohn's Diseases Study (ECCDS) and was done at the University of Dusseldorf in Germany.
Components of index:
(1) serum albumin in g/L
(2) daily abdominal pain for 7 consecutive days
(3) simultaneous small and large intestinal involvement
Parameter
Finding
Score
daily abdominal pain
none
0
mild
1
moderate
2
severe
3
intestinal involvement
small and large intestines not simultaneously involved
0
small and large intestines simultaneously involved
1
abdominal pain score for 1 week =
= SUM(daily abdominal pain scores for 7 consecutive days)
prognostic index =
= 550 - (10 * (serum albumin in g/L)) + (5 * (abdominal pain score for 1 week)) - (100 * (intestinal involvement score))
a
Interpretation:
• minimum score: < 0 (see Figure 4c page 91)
• maximum score: 400
• A score > 180 identified a group of patients with unfavorable outcome.
Performance:
• The authors found that the prognostic index was a better predictor of patient outcomes for the 2 year study period than the activity indices were.
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