Description

Javaheri et al identified factors predictive of mortality in patients with systolic heart failure. These can help identify a patient who may benefit from closer monitoring and more aggressive management. The authors are from the Veterans Affairs Medical Center and University of Cincinnati in Cincinnati, Ohio.


 

Patient selection: systolic heart failure

 

Predictors of mortality:

(1) central sleep apnea

(2) right ventricular dysfunction (measured by right ventricular ejection fraction)

(3) diastolic blood pressure

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

central sleep apnea

absent

0

 

present

1

right ventricular dysfunction

normal to mild dysfunction

0

 

moderate to severe dysfunction

1

diastolic blood pressure

normal or high

0

 

low

1

 

where:

• Central sleep apnea was evaluated based on the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Survival for patients with an AHI < 5 (90 months) was twice that of someone with an AHI >= 5 (45 months). The lowest survival was for patients with an AHI >= 15 (36 months).

• What constituted a low diastolic blood pressure was not defined. Based on Table 2 it might be < 60 mm Hg.

 

total number of risk factors =

= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum number of risk factors: 0

• maximum number of risk factors: 3

• The higher the number of risk factors, the worse the survival.

 


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