Karp et al developed risk models for identifying an adolescent who may become a daily smoker. A patient at risk may benefit from interventions to reduce the risk. The authors are from the University of Montreal.
Patient selection: adolescent from 11 to 19 years of age
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) ever smoked
(3) parents smoke
(4) siblings smoke
(5) ever felt the need for a cigarette
(6) drink alcohol
(7) friends drink
|
Parameter |
Finding |
1 Year |
2 Year |
|
age |
11 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
12 |
87 |
87 |
|
|
13 |
75 |
75 |
|
|
14 |
62 |
62 |
|
|
15 |
50 |
50 |
|
|
16 |
37 |
37 |
|
|
17 |
25 |
25 |
|
|
18 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
19 |
0 |
0 |
|
ever smoked |
no |
0 |
0 |
|
|
yes |
72 |
38 |
|
parents smoke |
no |
0 |
0 |
|
|
yes |
16 |
14 |
|
siblings smoke |
no |
0 |
0 |
|
|
yes |
19 |
11 |
|
ever felt the need for a cigarette |
no |
0 |
0 |
|
|
yes |
59 |
25 |
|
drink alcohol |
no |
0 |
0 |
|
|
yes |
12 |
7 |
|
friends drink |
no |
0 |
0 |
|
|
yes |
33 |
15 |
total score for 1 year risk =
= SUM(points for 1 year risk)
total score for 2 year risk =
= SUM(points for 2 year risk)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score for 1 year risk: 311
• maximum score for 2 year risk: 210
|
1 Year Score |
Risk of Smoking |
|
< 100 |
< 1% |
|
100 to 160 |
(0.05 * (score)) - 4 |
|
160 to 240 |
(0.001527 * ((score)^2)) – (0.3505 * (score)) + 20.83 |
|
240 to 310 |
(0.5762 * (score)) – 112.2 |
|
2 Year Score |
Risk of Smoking |
|
0 to 100 |
(0.06 * (score)) |
|
100 to 160 |
(0.0075 * ((score)^2)) – (1.25 * (score)) + 56 |
|
160 to 210 |
(-0.00328 * ((score)^2)) + (2.043 * (score)) - 195 |
Specialty: Psychiatry
ICD-10: ,
