Models of Demetris et al for an Unfavorable Outcome Following Liver Transplant Based on Histologic Features

 

Models:

(1) short-term prognosis

(2) long-term prognosis

 

Unfavorable short-term outcome consists of one or more of the following:

(1) acute rejection ending in graft failure

(2) OKT3 or ALG used to treat the rejection

(3) any secondary treatment required

(4) complete resolution of the episode was not achieved within 21 days

 

Unfavorable long-term outcome consists of one or both of the following:

(1) rejection-related death within 6 months of rejection onset

(2) need for retransplantation within 6 months of rejection onset

 

Parameters:

(1) intensity of the portal tract inflammation

(2) lobular disarray and ballooning of hepatocytes

(3) cholestasis

 

Parameter	Finding	Points for Short Term Model	Points for Long Term Model
portal inflammation	none	0	0
	mild	0	0
	moderate	0.78	1.52
	severe	0	4.54
lobular disarray and ballooning	none	0	0
	mild	0.71	0
	moderate	-0.58	0
	severe	0	0
cholestasis	absent	0	0
	present	-0.86	0

 

value of X for short-term outcome

= SUM(points for short-term parameters) - 0.31

 

probability of an unfavorable short-term outcome =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

value of Y for long-term outcome =

= SUM(points for long-term parameters) - 3.85

 

probability of an unfavorable long-term outcome =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))