Model of Parker and Palmer for Predicting Mortality at 1 Year After a Hip Fracture

 

Parameters:

(1) mobility assessment score prior to the fracture (section 37.18.12), scored from 0 (no mobility at all) to 9 (normal mobility)

(2) abbreviated mental status test of Qureshi and Hodkinson (section 18.03.02), scored from 0 (severe impairment) to 10 (normal mental status)

 

X =

= 1.3 - (0.3 * (mobility score)) - (0.07 * (mental status test))

 

percentage chance of survival at 1 year =

= 100 / (1 + EXP(X))

 

Mobility Score	Mental Status Test	Survival at 1 Year
< 5	< 8	41%
> 5	NA	84%
NA	>= 8	84%

 

Performance of components:

• The sensitivity of mobility score < 5 for predicting survival was 73% with specificity of 62%.

• The sensitivity of mental status score < 8 (Table IV says < 7, text says < 8) for predicting survival was 61% with specificity of 71%.