Parameters:
(1) age of the patient in years
(2) gender
(3) serum BUN in mg/dL
(4) serum creatinine in mg/dL
(5) hematologic failure (white blood cell count <= 1,000 per µL; platelet count < 20,000 per µL; hematocrit < 20%; require platelet transfusions to keep the platelet count above 20,000 per µL)
(6) liver failure (acute liver failure with serum liver function tests greater than 2 times the upper limit of normal; chronic liver disease with worsening in liver function and the presence of encephalopathy)
(7) respiratory failure (respiratory rate <= 5 breaths per minute or >= 49 breaths per minute; PaCO2 >= 50 mm Hg; AaDO2 >= 350 mm Hg; ventilator dependent after 24 hours of oxygen system failure)
(8) heart rate in beats per minute
(9) urine output in mL per day
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
gender
|
male
|
1
|
|
|
female
|
0
|
|
hematologic failure
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
1
|
|
liver failure
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
1
|
|
respiratory failure
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
1
|
X =
= (0.0170 * (age in years)) + (0.8605 * (points for gender)) + (0.0144 * (serum BUN)) – (0.3398 * (serum creatinine)) + (1.2242 * (points for hematologic failure)) + (1.1183 * (points for liver failure)) + (0.9637 * (points for respiratory failure)) + (0.0119 * (heart rate)) – (0.4432 * LOG(urine output)) – 0.7207
where:
• I am assuming that log(urine output) refers to LOG10.
probability of death =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
