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Solitary Pulmonary Nodule - Model for Predicting Lung Cancer

Purpose: To estimate that a patient with a solitary lung nodule has lung cancer based on the model of Gould et al.

Description

Gould et al developed a model for predicting the probability of lung cancer in a patient with a solitary pulmonary nodule. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Center, Veterans Affairs Health Economics Resources Center in Menlo Park, and the Veterans Affairs SNAP Cooperative Study Group.


 

Patient selection: solitary pulmonary nodule

 

Parameters:

(1) smoking status

(2) age in years

(3) maximum diameter of the lung nodule in millimeters

(4) number of years since quitting smoking

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

smoking status

never smoked

0

 

current or former smoker

1

age in years

 

(age) / 10

years since quitting

 

(years) / 10

 

where:

• The value for years since quitting is unclear for a never smoker.

 

X =

= (2.061 * (points for smoking status)) + (0.779 * (points for age)) + (0.112 * (diameter in mm)) - (0.567 * (points for years since quitting)) - 8.404

 

probability of malignancy =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.79.

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10