Davis et al used the admission base deficit and Injury Severity Score (ISS) to predict the probability of developing multi-organ failure for a trauma patient. This can help identify a patient who may require more aggressive management and monitoring. The authors are from the Fresno Campus of the University of California San Francisco.
If base excess is reported, then a base deficit is a negative number.
If base deficit is reported, then a base deficit is a positive number.
Base Excess |
Interpretation |
>= 3 mmol/L |
base excess |
-2 to 2 |
normal |
-3 to -5 |
mild base deficit |
-6 to -9 |
moderate base deficit |
<= -10 |
severe base deficit |
The curves in Figure 4 (page 772) plotting base status vs ISS showed the following values:
ISS |
Base Excess |
Normal |
Mild Base Deficit |
Moderate Base Deficit |
Severe Base Deficit |
0 |
0.06 |
0.09 |
0.14 |
0.21 |
0.3 |
5 |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.19 |
0.27 |
0.38 |
10 |
0.10 |
0.16 |
0.24 |
0.34 |
0.45 |
15 |
0.14 |
0.21 |
0.30 |
0.41 |
0.53 |
20 |
0.19 |
0.27 |
0.38 |
0.49 |
0.61 |
25 |
0.24 |
0.34 |
0.45 |
0.58 |
0.69 |
30 |
0.30 |
0.41 |
0.53 |
0.65 |
0.75 |
35 |
0.38 |
0.49 |
0.61 |
0.72 |
0.81 |
40 |
0.46 |
0.58 |
0.69 |
0.78 |
0.85 |
45 |
0.53 |
0.65 |
0.76 |
0.83 |
0.89 |
50 |
0.62 |
0.72 |
0.81 |
0.87 |
0.91 |
55 |
0.69 |
0.79 |
0.85 |
0.9 |
0.94 |
60 |
0.76 |
0.83 |
0.89 |
0.93 |
0.96 |
65 |
0.81 |
0.87 |
0.92 |
0.95 |
0.97 |
70 |
0.86 |
0.91 |
0.94 |
0.96 |
0.975 |
75 |
0.89 |
0.93 |
0.96 |
0.97 |
0.982 |
When this data is analyzed in JMP the following equations can be used to match the curves:
Curve |
ISS 0 to 35 |
ISS 35 to 75 |
Excess |
(0.0001881 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0024881 * (ISS)) + 0.0604167 |
(-0.000138 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0282762 * (ISS)) - 0.449152 |
Normal |
(0.0001643 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0057976 * (ISS)) + 0.0879167 |
(-0.000178 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.030619 * (ISS)) - 0.362576 |
Mild Deficit |
(0.0001119 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0094048 * (ISS)) + 0.138333 |
(-0.000172 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0274048 * (ISS)) - 0.133182 |
Moderate Deficit |
(0.0000405 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0135119 * (ISS)) + 0.2045833 |
(-0.000145 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0220381 * (ISS)) + 0.1282727 |
Severe deficit |
(-0.000052 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0166429 * (ISS)) + 0.296667 |
(-0.0001309 * ((ISS)^2)) + (0.0162386 * (ISS)) + 0.3757 |
Performance:
• The model had an accuracy of 76.7%.
Specialty: Critical Care, Emergency Medicine, Surgery, general, Surgery, orthopedic
ICD-10: ,