Model of Almagro et al for Predicting the Risk of Hospital Readmission in a Patient with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)

Patient selection: COPD with history of hospital admission for COPD

Parameters:

(1) history of a previous admission to the hospital in the past year for COPD

(2) total score on the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ)

(3) PaCO2 in mm Hg at last hospital discharge

where:

• The St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire total score reflects the overall quality of life (QOL) for a patient with COPD and ranges from 0 to 100. A score >= 50 implies a moderate to high deterioration in the patient's overall QOL.

• Measuring PaCO2 at discharge implies that the person was admitted to the hospital at some point.

X =

= (1.45 * (points for previous hospital admission)) + (0.86 * (points for SPGR)) + (0.78 * (points for PaCO2)) - 2.24

probability of hospital admission for an acute exacerbation of COPD within 1 year =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))