Lau et al developed a nomogram for predicting survival in a patient with a terminal illness. The model is based on the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS). The authors are from the University of Victoria, the Victoria Hospice Society and University of Ottawa in Canada.
Patient selection: patient with a terminal illness and a PPS <= 70
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) location of the patient
(4) diagnosis
(5) Palliative Performance Scale (PPS)
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|---|---|---|
|
age in years |
<= 44 years |
0 |
|
|
45 to 64 years |
4.2 |
|
|
65 to 74 years |
7.3 |
|
|
75 to 84 years |
5.2 |
|
|
>= 85 years |
10.7 |
|
gender |
female |
0 |
|
|
male |
7.9 |
|
location |
extended care facility |
0 |
|
|
acute care hospital |
2.2 |
|
|
home |
11 |
|
diagnosis |
cancer, breast |
7.5 |
|
|
cancer, colorectal |
13.6 |
|
|
cancer, esophageal |
19 |
|
|
cancer, eye, brain, CNS |
0 |
|
|
cancer, female genital |
12.6 |
|
|
cancer, gastrointestinal, other |
16.5 |
|
|
cancer, head and neck |
16.5 |
|
|
cancer, hematopoietic |
17.3 |
|
|
cancer, male genital |
2.7 |
|
|
cancer, other |
12.9 |
|
|
cancer, pancreas |
13.9 |
|
|
cancer, respiratory tract |
16.9 |
|
|
cancer, skin |
12.2 |
|
|
cancer, stomach |
9.4 |
|
|
cancer, urinary tract |
7.1 |
|
|
noncancer, AIDS |
9.6 |
|
|
noncancer, cardiovascular |
2.6 |
|
|
noncancer, neurological |
1 |
|
|
noncancer, respiratory |
13.5 |
|
|
noncancer. other |
11.5 |
|
|
none of the above |
9.6 |
points for PPS =
= (0.02165 * ((PPS)^2)) - (3.422 * (PPS)) + 133.5
total score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 147
• The higher the score the shorter the predicted survival.
|
Total Score |
Median Survival in Days |
|---|---|
|
< 10 |
> 150 |
|
10 to 49 |
(0.07709 * ((score)^2)) - (7.652 * (score)) + 211.1 |
|
49 to 78 |
(0.01202 * ((score)^2)) - (1.996 * (score)) + 88.74 |
|
78 to 137 |
(0.001337 * ((score)^2)) - (0.3695 * (score)) + 26.55 |
|
> 137 |
< 1 |
Purpose: To predict survival for a patient with a terminal illness using the model of Lau et al based on the PPS.
Objective: severity, prognosis, stage, quality of life, end-of-life, palliative care
ICD-10: Z51.5,
