Garrison et al developed equations for predicting mortality in cirrhotic patients having abdominal surgery (celiotomy). These can help identify patients who require more aggressive management and closer monitoring. The authors are from the University of Louisville.
Parameters:
(1) respiratory failure
(2) number of units of packed RBCs transfused
(3) upper GI tract bleeding
(4) urinary tract infection
(5) ascites
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
respiratory failure |
absent |
2 |
|
|
present |
1 |
|
upper GI bleeding |
absent |
2 |
|
|
present |
1 |
|
urinary tract infection |
absent |
2 |
|
|
present |
1 |
|
ascites |
absent |
2 |
|
|
present |
1 |
discriminative value =
= (5.23786 * (points for respiratory failure)) - (0.14948 * (units of PRBCs transfused)) + (1.46929 * (points for upper GI bleeding)) - (0.53948 * (points for UTI)) - (1.39626 * (points for ascites)) - 8.74144
Interpretation:
• minimum value: around -7.4
• maximum value: around 2.74
• The lower the value the worse the survival.
|
Discriminative Value |
Outcome |
|
>= 1.62694 |
survival |
|
-3.87097 to 1.62693 |
indeterminate |
|
<= -3.87098 |
nonsurvival |
Performance:
• The discriminative value was able to predict outcome with 98% accuracy.
Specialty: Gastroenterology, Surgery, general, Surgery, orthopedic
ICD-10: ,
