One way of putting the chances of an adverse medical event into perspective is to identify a life event with a similar occurrence frequency.
|
Life Event |
Occurrence |
|
death from poisoning |
1 in 105,133 (annual); 1 in 1,371 (lifetime) |
|
drowning after fall in bathtub |
1 in 852,563 (annual); 1 in 11,116 (lifetime) |
|
dying after being attacked by a dog |
1 in 10,912,800 (annual); 1 in 142,279 (lifetime) |
|
dying after exposure to electric transmission line |
1 in 2,148,189 (annual); 1 in 28,008 (lifetime) |
|
dying after exposure to hornet, wasp or bees |
1 in 6,344,651 (annual); 1 in 82,720 (lifetime) |
|
dying after exposure to smoke, fire or flames |
1 in 81,487 (annual); 1 in 1,062 (lifetime) |
|
dying after falling from a height |
1 in 4,624,068 (annual); 1 in 60,288 (lifetime) |
|
dying as a car occupant |
1 in 18,752 (annual); 1 in 244 (lifetime) |
|
dying as a pedestrian |
1 in 45,117 (annual); 1 in 588 (lifetime) |
|
dying as a railroad passenger |
1 in 5,052,222 (annual); 1 in 65,870 (lifetime) |
|
dying by drowning |
1 in 544,551 (annual); 1 in 7,100 (lifetime) |
|
dying from a fall |
1 in 20,728 (annual); 1 in 270 (lifetime) |
|
dying from a venomous snakebite |
1 in 38,974,286 (annual); 1 in 508,139 (lifetime) |
|
dying from an earthquake |
1 in 5,930,870 (annual); 1 in 77,326 (annual) |
|
dying from an injury |
1 in 1,805 (annual); 1 in 24 (lifetime) |
|
dying from hot tap water |
1 in 5,349,412 (annual); 1 in 69,745 (lifetime) |
|
dying from lightning strike |
1 in 4,262,813 (annual); 1 in 55,578 (lifetime) |
|
dying from narcotic overdose |
1 in 45,502 (annual); 1 in 592 (lifetime) |
|
dying from self-inflicted gunshot wound |
1 in 16,346 (annual); 1 in 214 (lifetime) |
|
dying from suicide |
1 in 9,343 (annual); 1 in 122 (lifetime) |
|
dying in a bus |
1 in 4,400,323 (annual); 1 in 57,371 (lifetime) |
|
dying in a flood |
1 in 18,188,000 (annual); 1 in 237,132 (lifetime) |
|
dying in a streetcar |
1 in 272,820,00 (annual); 1 in 3,556,975 (lifetime) |
|
dying in an air transport accident |
1 in 381,565 (annual); 1 in 4,975 (lifetime) |
|
freezing to death |
1 in 459,293 (annual); 1 in 5,948 (lifetime) |
|
full house in 5 card stud poke |
1 in 700 (per hand) |
|
hitting a hole in one in golf |
1 in 25,000 (per hole) |
|
homicide by firearm |
1 in 25,196 (annual); 1 in 328 (lifetime) |
|
injury after being struck by lightning |
1 in 125,000 |
|
royal flush in 5 card stud poker |
1 in 650,000 (per hand) |
where:
• The entries above were used because the numbers were readily available and they demonstrate the concept. However, for an effective clinical tool it would be better to choose events with less dying.
Limitations:
• The reported chance of an event may vary considerably between different sources. Nonlethal injuries (like dog bites or fireworks injuries) may be under-reported (reporting bias).
• It is important to keep in mind the time frame for the report chances - per event, per year, lifetime, etc.
• Woloshin et al found that a "1 in x" scale had a low validity and poor test-test reliability (r = 0.45). The subjects in their study found this hard to use despite the general assumption for being simple and easy to use.
