Germann et al used classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to evaluate the risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe burns. This can help identify patients who may require more aggressive therapy. The authors are from the BG Trauma Center (Ludwigshafen) and University of Cologne in Germany.
Patient selection: age range from 2 to 96 years
Parameters for model 1:
(1) total body surface area burned
(2) age in years
(3) alcohol abuse
|
total BSA |
age in years |
alcohol abuse |
Mortality Rate |
|
< 20% |
2 – 72 |
NA |
7% |
|
< 20% |
73 – 96 |
NA |
67% |
|
20 – 40% |
2 – 44 |
NA |
9% |
|
20 – 40% |
45 – 72 |
NA |
33% |
|
20 – 40% |
73 – 96 |
NA |
89% |
|
> 40% |
2 – 52 |
no |
26% |
|
> 40% |
2 – 52 |
yes |
70% |
|
> 40% |
53 - 96 |
NA |
95% |
from Figure 11, page 200
Parameters for model 2:
(1) abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI) of Tobiasen et al
(2) age
(3) other risk factors (alcohol abuse, inhalation injury, heart disease, smoking more than 20 cigarettes per day, female gender)
|
ABSI |
age in years |
other risk factors |
Mortality Rate |
|
<= 6 |
NA |
NA |
3% |
|
7 - 10 |
2 – 71 |
affect outcome |
33% |
|
7 - 10 |
72 – 96 |
NA |
70% |
|
11 – 16 |
NA |
NA |
99% |
where:
• The other risk factors were listed as discriminating variables with p < 0.05. However, how they impact mortality was not given.
Specialty: Emergency Medicine, Critical Care
