The Brier score can be used to assess the accuracy of outcome prediction. Developed for weather forecasting, the score can be applied to a clinician or prognostic index.
The Brier score for a prediction of cure in a patient:
Brier score =
= (((predicted probability of cure) – (actual outcome))^2)
where:
• actual outcome for a cure = 1; actual outcome for no cure = 0
average Brier score =
= (SUM(all Brier scores)) / (number of patients evaluated)
Interpretation:
• minimum Brier score: 0
• maximum Brier score: 1
• A score of 0 indicates perfect prediction.
• A score of 1 indicates worst possible prediction.
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