Roi et al developed two burn severity indices to predict the mortality risk for patients with severe burns. This can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive or novel therapies. The report was based on a study performed at multiple medical institutions across the United States.
Patient selection: The methods cover all ages.
Parameters:
(1) percent total burn (partial and full thickness burns), from 0 to 100
(2) percent partial thickness burn (second degree), from 0 to 100
(3) percent full thickness burn (third degree), from 0 to 100
(4) age in years: either < 2 or >= 2
(5) perineum involvement
(6) gender
(7) time in days from burn to admission (0 if same day as burn event, apparently as an integer)
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
age < 2 years |
yes |
1 |
|
|
no |
0 |
|
age >= 2 years |
yes |
age in years |
|
|
no |
0 |
|
gender |
male |
0 |
|
|
female |
1 |
|
perineum involvement |
yes |
1 |
|
|
no |
0 |
X for total burn model =
= (-0.1032 * (days from burn to admission)) + (0.3224 * (points for gender)) + (0.6188 * (points for perineum)) + (0.4478 * (points for age < 2)) – (0.0972 * (points for age >= 2)) + (0.003481 * ((points for age >=2)^2)) – (0.0000201 * ((points for age >= 2)^3)) + (0.2186 * (percent total burn)) – (0.002458 * ((percent total burn)^2)) + (0.00001371 * ((percent total burn)^3)) – 7.5532
X for full and partial thickness burn model =
= (-0.1450 * (days from burn to admission)) + (0.2083 * (points for gender)) + (0.4070 * (points for perineum)) + (0.9872 * (points for age < 2)) – (0.06218 * (points for age >= 2)) + (0.002795 * ((points for age >=2)^2)) – (0.00001656 * ((points for age >= 2)^3)) + (0.09664 * (percent partial thickness)) + (0.199 * (percent full thickness)) – (0.003027 * (percent partial thickness) * (percent full thickness)) – (0.001075 * ((percent full thickness)^2)) + (0.00002505 * (percent partial thickness) * ((percent full thickness)^2)) – 6.9446
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Limitations:
• Improvements in management since 1983 have contributed to better survivals.
• The score does not incorporate inhalation injury.
Specialty: Emergency Medicine, Critical Care
