Walter et al developed models for predicting early death after induction therapy for newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). A basic model uses 3 variables to identify a patient at increased risk for treatment-related mortality (TRM). The authors are from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center at the University of Washington, and the M.D. Anderson Cancer Center at the University of Texas Houston.
Treatment-related mortality (TRM) was defined as death within 28 days of starting induction therapy.
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) ECOG performance status (PS)
(3) platelet count
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 61 years
0
61 to 70 years
2
> 70 years
4
perfomance status
0
0
1
2
2 to 4
4
platelet count
>= 50,000 per µL
1
< 50,000 per µL
0
where:
• The points for platelet count seem counter-intuitive.
score =
= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 9
• The higher the score the greater the risk of TRM.
Score
Risk Group
0 to 3
low
4 to 6
intermediate
7 to 9
high
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.71.
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